Year 2019 is going to give BJP AP unit a bitter experience best summed up in this quotation. “When troubles come, they come not in singles but in battalions”. This aptly describes the present predicament going by the public mood building up in the State against BJP despite it being the ruling party at the Centre.
All the efforts being made by BJP National President Amit Shah and his advisors are not getting the desired results to change status quo in the field level. They are no able to attract many aspirants who usually make a beeline for MLA tickets by now, nor is there any major migration of second-rung leaders who may want to shift loyalties due to ticket denials in other parties.
The general impression, as of now, is that BJP comes nowhere near the other major parties and that Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena is far ahead of it in terms of voter appeal and vote bank. The TDP and YCP may be afraid of Jana Sena a bit as it is likely to split vote in some places fairly well. They have no such fear with regard to BJP state unit as it may end up having far less impact in the elections.
Going by the emerging political scenario, BJP may even find it difficult to get candidates to contest in most assembly and Lok Sabha constituencies. BJP won four assembly seats in 2014 while Congress drew a blank. At that time, alliance with TDP helped BJP to a great extent while Congress fought it alone and lost deposits in over 150 out of total 175 segments in AP. There may be a reversal of roles in 2019.
Of the five major factors that stand in the path of BJP in next elections,
the first and foremost one is stated to be its unenviable status of being an untouchable in the eyes of voters and alliance seekers. Jagan is almost afraid of even talking about alliance with BJP. Amit Shah might have thought of reaching a tie-up with YCP by giving support to Jaganmohan Reddy in different ways, but TDP has outwitted BJP and created a strong anti-BJP mood among the people in respect of non-fulfilment of special status and other reorganisation promises. If Jagan dares to ally with BJP, it is going to be a massive self-goal at this juncture. Entering election fray alone means a total rout for BJP just like the position of Congress in 2014 elections when it drew a blank. The scene reverses now with BJP likely to get zero while Congress’s position may improve a little.
The second spoilsport is BJP’s belated criticism of the ruling TDP which is not being received well among the masses, not to speak of the educated and informed sections. It is not that the TDP’s rule has won favour of all sections of people but that the common man is suspicious as to how can BJP suddenly change stand and criticise TDP after sharing power with it for over three and half years since 2014. The sudden change in tactics has put BJP in an embarrassing situation and its leaders’ increasing attacks on sand and liquor mafias are only viewed as something made out of political interests.
Thirdly, BJP lost the confidence of AP people by announcing that special status would not be possible. The party preferred to say this at a time when the status issue demand was spiralling into a major sentiment that triggered a feeling of betrayal among the people who were seething with anger since state division. BJP leadership forgot that the wounds caused by AP bifurcation are still fresh and rival parties will surely take political advantage out of this. Now BJP leaders will have to keep silent while other parties make the most of main election plank which is special status.
Fourth factor is the selection of Kapu leader Kanna Lakshminarayana as BJP state president. A vast section of Kapu and allied castes are openly supporting matinee idol Pawan en bloc. The proof for this polarisation in Kapu vote was seen in 2009 elections when Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party split anti-government vote considerably. PRP got over 17 per cent vote that year in United AP and won 18 seats. As Chiranjeevi’s favoured brother and a successful actor, Pawan is expected to wield far greater influence on Kapus than Kanna Lakshminarayana.
The fifth and final factor obstructing BJP in AP is its inability to counter TDP’s charges on issues of its alleged secret deal with Jagan, softened investigation in Jagan’s assets cases and non-allocation of enough funds for completing Amaravati capital, central educational institutions and irrigation projects like Polavaram.
Countering BJP criticism of corruption, TDP MLC Buddha Venkanna challenged for a debate on the assets of BJP state president Kanna Lakshminarayana saying that it was everybody’s knowledge that Kanna received notices from CBI in a corruption case. He dismissed BJP criticism as mere political allegations aimed at undermining the good work being done by Chandrababu Naidu to develop AP and Amaravati.
On his part, BJP MLC Somu Veerraju criticized TDP saying there were irregularities in all sectors under Chandrababu rule and nothing is an exception for this from Polavaram national project to Neeru Meeru works in village level.
All said, 2019 is going to be a suspense-filled unique election with only one exception. That BJP will not find a partner while Congress has already got one.