Analysis: Will Rayalaseema declaration help BJP?

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As the political chasm between the Telugu Desam and the Bharatiya Janata Party widens over the alleged injustice to Andhra Pradesh in the central budget, both parties are coming up with newer strategies to counter the other. BJP announced the Rayalaseema Declaration, containing 16 demands at the Kurnool conclave attended by several BJP members.

What is this Rayalaseema declaration:

While TDP (and other parties) seeks justice to AP from Union government led by BJP, BJP seeks justice to Rayalaseema from state government led by TDP. Though this too is a political stunt, it has some valid points. Some of these demands are as below:

  • Setting up of a High Court (temporary and permanent) in Rayalaseema
  • Second capital in Rayalaseema
  • Rs 20,000 crore budgetary allocation for Rayalaseema to arrest the deaths of farmers and to control migration
  • White paper on the amount of money spent in AP in the last three-and-a-half years for Rayalaseema.
  • Carving out four more districts in the region – and make it to 8 districts region
  • Allocation of Rs 20,000 crore in 2018-19 Budget for completion of irrigation projects,
  • Completion of Galeru-Nagari, Handree-Neeva and Guru Raghavendra Swamy projects by 2018-19.
  • Revival of the Rayalaseema Development Board,
  • Fulfilment of 200 promises made to Rayalaseema in the manifesto of the TDP,
  • Reopening of industries that have been shut down in th region,
  • Creating a Rs 5,000 crore fund for welfare of the weaver community in the region

What is good in this declaration

Decentralization is always good thing to do. T360 analyzed the news of “Vijayawada railway zone instead of Vizag railway zone” in the same way. As TDP is focusing more on Capital region , North Andhra and Rayalaseema regions are feeling deprived. Analysts have pointed many times, centralized development will spur separatist movements. Advising for decentralization is always good.

Backwardness is prevalent in Rayalaseema despite the fact 90% of the chief ministers ruled AP in last few decades are from Rayalaseema. Undoing the previous mistakes will definitely help the region. Though the demands like second capital and more districts etc seem to be political and not of great use, completing irrigation projects like Galeru-Nagari and other projects will definitely boon to Rayalaseema. Reviving the shut industries also will help averting migration from the region.

TDP Rajya Sabha member from the region TG Venkatesh welcomed most of these demands.

What is bad in this

BJP demanding for a 2nd capital in the region. While the AP government doesn’t have money to build first capital itself, BJP demanding to “build” a second capital is just ludicrous.

The timing is definitely bad. BJP chose the voice on Rayalaseema, while entire AP is questioning BJP for not granting Special Category status. “Will this dilute SCS demand?” is the question ringing in ears of AP people.

Indian politicians seem to have learned a lot from British rulers. “Divide and rule” is the policy used by Britishers in 1905 Bengal division. When Britishers were not able to win Bengalis trust, they split Bengal and went in favor of one section over other hoping that section will stand by them. But of course that backfired. Even when BJP made Kakinada declaration for AP bifurcation in 1998, when there was no Telangana demand from people, it was the same strategy. BJP had no stakes in AP, so they wanted to get at least some footing in Telangana with 1998 declaration. Are they doing the same thing now for Rayalaseema.

Pure politics :

BJP seems to have planned to embarrass Chandra babu after AP budget in the exactly same way he did to Modi. By voicing for Rayalaseema demands just before budget, BJP has set ground perfectly for that. If TDP speaks Union budget did injustice to AP, BJP can speak state budget did injustice to Rayalaseema. To be frank, from political perspective, this is master stroke from BJP. How CBN handles this will be interesting to watch.

In AP, Telangana region has more muslims, followed by Rayalaseema and comparatively less muslims in Coastal Andhra region. Remember, in Nandyala bypolls, CBN avoided taking support of BJP leaders. So will Muslims in Rayalaseema vote for BJP even if they speak for the region, is a million dollar question.

Some anti-YSRCP people are doing a wild guess that, in case Jagan’s case speeds up and any drastic decision happens in those cases, he may have to go Jail like Sasikala. In such case, there will be lot of political space in Rayalaseema region and BJP planning to cash on that and preparing ground now. But this logic seems very far fetched. On the other hand, YSRCP fans are saying, BJP wants to get rid of TDP and ally jagan. So, in case BJP wants to ally with Jagan but they are unable to give Special category, Jagan and BJP wants something to offer people and BJP. So, instead of giving SCS, BJP will just give some funds for Rayalaseema region and ally with Jagan in 2019 elections.

Way forward:

First things first. If BJP is really committed for development of Rayalaseema, BJP has to demonstrate that commitment, by allotting more funds to backward districts of the region FROM UNION GOVERNMENT in the form of package (like Bundelkhand) or Backward region grant funds or special status to the region. Then, their declaration will be considered seriously by AP people. Without doing anything from their side (central government) to the region, if they speak for the region, it will be seen by just an attempt to either divert Special category status demand or to dilute it.

-Zuran

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