The latest Mood of the Nation survey conducted by India Today in association with C-Voter offers a clear snapshot of Tamil Nadu’s shifting political landscape. The findings suggest that if Lok Sabha elections were held now, the DMK-led INDIA alliance under Chief Minister M K Stalin would once again dominate the state with a near clean sweep.

According to the survey, the INDIA bloc is projected to win 38 out of Tamil Nadu’s 39 Lok Sabha seats. Despite a marginal dip in vote share, from 47 percent in 2024 to 45 percent now, the alliance continues to translate votes into seats with remarkable efficiency. The results underline the firm grip of the DMK–Congress combine, leaving very little room for traditional opposition forces.

In contrast, the BJP-led NDA is expected to shrink dramatically. The alliance may be restricted to just one seat, with its vote share projected to fall from 41 percent to around 33 percent. Political analysts point to the rise of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a major factor behind this decline.

The most striking shift in the survey is the sharp rise in the “Others” category. This segment has grown from 12 percent in 2024 to 22 percent now. Vijay’s TVK alone is estimated to command around 15 percent of the vote, signalling Vijay’s arrival as a serious political force. His appeal among first-time voters and disenchanted youth appears to be reshaping voter behaviour.

As Tamil Nadu heads towards the 2026 Assembly elections, what was once a bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK now shows signs of becoming a three-cornered fight. Even so, the survey indicates that vote fragmentation is currently benefiting the ruling DMK alliance. If this trend continues, Stalin’s government is well placed for another term. For Vijay, the numbers underline potential, but without alliances, the risk of becoming a vote splitter rather than a power centre remains high.