How much vote bank does Janasena have? ( Part-2)

We have discussed in the previous article that there has been a debate on how much vote percentage Janasena is going to have. In a recent interview, Pawan told, he had 18% vote bank in 2014 and that helped TDP pull it off as Janasena did not contest but only supported TDP. ( https://www.telugu360.com/how-much-vote-bank-does-janasena-have-part-1/ )

Any discussion on Janasena tend to get comparison with PRP. Political opponents always say, Janasena will also end up another disaster like PRP. Political supporters of Janasena always say PRP got good vote percentage but votes did not properly convert into seats. PRP got 17% vote bank but only 18 seats out of 294 seats. Had this 17% votes converted to seats, it would have been 50 seats for PRP. But parties with no cadre and new political parties always will have this difference between vote percentage and seat percentage.

Let us use this PRP vote bank data to help assess Janasena vote bank. Whether people agree or not, both Chiranjeevi and Pawan got huge hype for their parties because of 2 factors – one is, they belong highly populous Kapu caste and people have tendency to vote based on caste equations in India, second they have huge fan following among youth belonging to other castes too and voting behavior of youth always confused psephologists. Because of this similarities, PRP voting pattern and result definitely give us sufficient clues on Janasena vote bank.

PRP performance is as below in 2009. Out of 175 assembly seats (excluding Telangana region):

PRP stood at 1st Place: 16 seats (18 seats out of 294 including Telangana)

PRP stood at 2nd Place: 27 seats

PRP stood at 3rd place: 128 seats

If we see vote percentage for PRP including Telangana, stats are as below:

Total votes polled in AP (including Telangana) for PRP: 68,20,845

Total votes polled in AP (including Telangana) for all parties: 42058446

PRP vote percentage in entire state 6820845/42058446 = 16.2175

PRP fans and Chiranjeevi always say, PRP got 17% vote bank and 70 lakh votes. Probably they did “too much of rounding-off” and Trivikram might have got the definition of “round figure” from them and used that concept of round-figure in his Khaleja movie. Just kidding. To be specific, PRP got 68,20,845 votes ( 1,79,155 less than 70 lakh) and 16.2175 %

Click here for part-3 -How much vote bank does Janasena have?

If we see vote percentage for PRP excluding Telangana, stats are as below:

Total votes polled in AP (excluding Telangana region) for PRP: 48,41,918

Total votes polled in AP (excluding Telangana) for all parties: 25223976

PRP vote percentage in AP (excluding Telangana) 48,41,918/2,52,23976 = 19.196

There might be approximations in the decimal fractions of this percentage, as some postal votes are not considered.

We will see in next article whether this 19.19 will be retained for Janasena or not.

-ZURAN