The political battle in Bihar appears to have a decisive outcome even before the official results. Multiple exit polls conducted after the second phase of voting predict a strong return to power for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
NDA Heads for Comfortable Majority
According to exit poll data, the NDA is set to win a commanding majority in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. The Matrize/IANS survey projects the NDA to secure between 147 and 167 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) may manage only 70 to 90 seats. Smaller parties are expected to bag 2 to 6 seats.
Chanakya Strategies offers a slightly closer contest, predicting 130 to 138 seats for the NDA and 100 to 108 for the MGB, with others taking 3 to 5. The Dainik Bhaskar poll estimates 145 to 160 seats for the NDA and 73 to 91 for the opposition.
When all exit polls are combined, the Poll of Polls gives the NDA 153 to 167 seats, the MGB 70 to 84, and others 3 to 6.
Voters Reaffirm Faith in Nitish Kumar
The consistent numbers across agencies indicate that voters have reaffirmed their confidence in the Nitish Kumar-led alliance. The results suggest that despite earlier criticism and anti-incumbency concerns, the NDA has managed to retain its core support base and even expand it in some regions.
The opposition alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, along with Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party, seems to have failed to make significant inroads. Analysts say the fragmented opposition strategy and lack of a unifying message worked in favor of the NDA.
Record Voter Turnout Signals Strong Engagement
The two-phase Bihar election witnessed one of the highest voter turnouts in the state’s history. The first phase recorded 65.08 percent voting, while the second phase saw an even higher 67.14 percent turnout. More than 3.7 crore voters exercised their franchise to decide the fate of 1,302 candidates.
The counting of votes will take place on November 14, and by mid-morning, Bihar’s political future is expected to be clear.
What Lies Ahead
If the exit polls hold, Nitish Kumar will cement his position as one of India’s longest-serving chief ministers. The results could also give fresh momentum to the NDA at the national level, especially with the 2026 general elections on the horizon.
