For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to have struggled to cross the 100-seat mark in Gujarat when it was boasting about bagging 150 is suggestive of an undeniable downward turn in its popularity ratings.

Considering that it tried all the tricks in the book, including several dirty ones, to cross the winning line showed that the party was uneasy about the outcome from the start, although Gujarat is Narendra Modi’s home state and few would have normally expected the locals to move decisively against a Gujarati Prime Minister.

But the fact that the previously unheralded Congress did reasonably well by adding to its 2012 tally of 61 seats was a sign that for the first time in more than two decades, the BJP was facing a challenge. The increase in the number of seats won by the Congress, and the fall in the BJP’s, underlined the fact that but for the relentless campaign undertaken by Modi and almost his entire cabinet, the BJP would have been hard put to win.

Along with the intensity of the campaign, with the Prime Minister concentrating so much on one state when he went only a few times to Himachal Pradesh, which also went to the polls, what was also noteworthy was the eagerness with which he latched on to the Congress maverick, Mani Shankar Aiyar’s gaffe about calling Modi names to assert that any slur on the Prime Minister is an insult to Gujarat.

Arguably, neither Modi’s claim of personally representing the state’s asmita or pride, nor his preposterous charge against his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, about conspiring with Pakistan had any noticeable impact on the mindset of the voters. In all probability, the outcome would have been the same even otherwise. But what these unprecedented outbursts, including the one about Aiyar having planned a “supari” operation to eliminate Modi, showed was that the BJP had the scare of its life during the elections.

The nervousness may have been all the greater because the party could not have expected the Congress to put up a fight. Although the Grand Old Party (GOP) always had a 40 per cent vote share in the state, there had never been any expectations about its prospects because of its moribund condition with hardly any organisational muscle or effective local leaders capable of drawing crowds.

However, perhaps to its own — and certainly to the BJP’s surprise — Rahul Gandhi’s entrance made a dramatic difference. For the first time since it went out of power, the Congress could seriously think of regaining it. Even if in the end, the HAJ factor made up of Patidar leader Hardik Patel, backward caste leader Alpesh Thakor and Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani did not make as much of an impact as was earlier thought, it proved that it was possible to mobilise the disaffected elements in the state against the seemingly all-powerful ruling party.

It cannot be said for certain whether the Congress will be able to sustain this combination of ambitious first-timers in politics — two of whom do not belong to it — for any length of time, especially when the prize for which they came together has eluded them. Besides, the Congress does not have anyone based in the state who can keep them together with a focussed agenda. One cannot expect Rahul Gandhi to continue playing the role of a unifier once the battle drums are silenced.

For the Congress, therefore, it is almost back to square one in Gujarat as the state has once again slipped out of its grasp and it will have to re-engage all over again in building the party’s ground level base. But the big takeaway nevertheless for the GOP is that, first, it has succeeded in giving the BJP a scare which no one would have thought possible in 2014, or earlier when the Congress lost four assembly elections in a row; and, secondly, that the party can now look forward with considerable confidence to next year’s elections in the three BJP-ruled states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where it may not be possible for Modi and BJP president Amit Shah to stave off the anti-incumbency factor as well as they have done in Gujarat.

For the BJP, the realisation must have dawned that the euphoria of 2014 is gone. Modi may still draw crowds, but it is possible to give him the jitters. It is unlikely that either he or his party will continue to make their arrogant claims about ushering in a Congress-mukt (free) India any longer. It will also help the party if the setback leads to a toning down of the haughtiness which has been its hallmark in the last few years.

The ruling BJP was on Monday set to retain power in Gujarat, just edging past the half-way mark in one of the most bitterly contested elections that saw the Congress improve its tally compared to five years ago.

Election Commission officials said the Bharatiya Janata Party, on course for its sixth consecutive win, had bagged 58 seats and was leading in 41 while the Congress had won 50 and was forging ahead in 27 more.

Smaller parties and independents had won three seats and were leading in three.

While the BJP celebrated all across Gujarat and in Delhi, the 99-seat tally was far less than the 150 BJP President Amit Shah had set for the party to win and 16 less than what it got in 2012 despite intense campaigning by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Congress, its campaign led by its now President Rahul Gandhi, was poised to finish with a tally of 77, 16 more than what it bagged five years ago.

Outside Parliament, a beaming Modi flashed a V sign to celebrate the victory in his home state. Senior BJP leaders taunted Rahul Gandhi and said the result proved that the people had embraced the Gujarat model of development.

But the BJP’s overall vote share in the state plunged from 60.11 per cent notched in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls to 49 per cent, indicating a sharp erosion in support base in a state which the party considers its fortress.

The vote share of the Congress, which joined hands with Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani and OBC leader Alpesh Thakore, soared from 33.45 per cent of 2014 to 41.5 per cent.

Union Information and Broadcasting Minister Smriti Irani brushed aside reports of BJP’s waning support, saying the winner was always the king. “Jo jeeta wo hi Sikander.”

As the vote count began across Gujarat at 8 a.m., at one point the Congress leads went past the BJP’s, giving a scare to the ruling party and sending the stock markets plunging down.

The BJP, however, managed to recover lost ground and eventually went past the half-way mark of 92 seats needed to control the 182-member House.

Chief Minister Vijay Rupani (Rajkot West) and Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel (Mehsana) trailed to the Congress early in the day before bouncing back and winning. While Rupani won by 50,412 votes, Patel’s victory margin was 7,951 votes.

The BJP also held on in most seats affected by the Patidar agitation demanding job quotas, provoking community leader Hardik Patel to complain about faulty Electronic Voting Machines.

While the BJP dominated over the Congress in South, Central and North Gujarat, the Congress held the upper hand in the sprawling Saurashtra/Kutch region.

The BJP also proved its sway over urban centres while the Congress seats came mostly from rural regions.

All Congress Chief Ministerial contenders lost — Shaktisinh Gohil (Mandvi), Arjun Modhwadia (Bokhiria) and Siddharth Patel (Dabhoi).

But the BJP suffered a setback in Unjha constituency which includes Modi’s hometown Vardana where he grew up.

The Gujarat election was held on December 9 and 14 and was marked by a viciousness that pitted Prime Minister Modi against the Congress, including his predecessor Manmohan Singh.

Modi had been the Gujarat Chief Minister from 2001 until he became the Prime Minister in 2014. It was the first Assembly election in Gujarat after Modi shifted to New Delhi.

The BJP has retained its grip over Gujarat but lost Unjha constituency to the Congress that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hometown of Vadnagar.

Congress’ Asha Patel defeated outgoing BJP MLA Patel Narayanbhai Lalludas by a margin of over 19,500 votes in the traditional stronghold of the Patidar community. While Patel polled 81,797 votes, her BJP rival got 62,268.

In 2012, Lalludas defeated Patel by nearly 25,000 votes.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi, the party’s star campaigner, had extensively campaigned in Unjha during his Navsarjan Yatra. On his visit to the region, Gandhi also prayed at the Umiya Mata temple, close to Vadnagar — where Modi was brought up.

Weeks before the election process began in Gujarat where the BJP has been in power for the last 22 years, Modi inaugurated Umiya Dham Ashram in Haridwar for the pilgrims from the region visiting the Hindu holy city on the bank of the Ganges.

Keenly battled Gujarat elections are over and all exit polls suggested victory for BJP, though the margin of majority is different. But still there are some doubts in political circles regarding BJP winning Gujarat. It seems there are 2 main reasons for this. In fact these are the same reasons when Vajpayee’s NDA government lost it to UPA in 2004 despite exit polls favoring Vajpayee’s NDA and all media channels buying BJP’s “India shining” campaign. Below are those 2 reasons that were attributed to the failure of 2004 exit polls and it seems these reasons are appropriate for current scenario too.

1. Gujarat always able to win most of the votes in urban areas, be it Gujarat or other states. Mainly middle class and upper middle class have been strong forte for BJP. On the other hand, Congress has most of their vote bank in rural and remote areas. It is very difficult for media and psephologists to catch the exact pulse of these remote voters. The same happened in 2004 when most of the samples are taken in urban and semi-urban areas. So these rural voters can actually turn the tide against BJP

2. This reason is a bit far-fetched. Whenever there is a complete positive propaganda on a particular party in media, usually voters don’t reveal their exact decision for several reasons. For example, when most of the media in US predicted Hillary Clinton’s victory, there was a silent wave for Trump. Some analysts later remarked that these voters might have hesitated to reveal their decision of voting for Trump to the media and psephologists. With Rahul Gandhi tagged as “Pappu” and voting for Congress being tagged as anti-national in some media, voters may prefer to not to reveal their decision.

The above are 2 reasons that were extrapolated to Gujarat elections from the analysis of “Why 2004 exit polls failed?”. Even after exit polls, Rajya Sabha BJP MP Sanjay Kakade has claimed that their party would not win enough seats to form the next government in Gujarat. On the other hand, Hardik Patel stated Congress will win 100 seats.

Anyway, its just few more hours to get to know the final answer.