Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India
Professor K.Nageshwar : KCR dreams of winning 100 seats
The TRS supremo and Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao sounding the poll bugle claims that his party will win 100 seats in the 119 strong Telangana legislative assembly. This claim can either be a strong expectation or a strategic move to enthuse his party rank and file and demoralise the opposition camp even before war has begun.
Notwithstanding such poll eve assertions, the TRS chief cannot be oblivious to the fact that sporadic discontentment is brewing against the K Chandrashekhar Rao government, at least among certain sections though, the Opposition Congress is far from winning over the confidence of the people. The half-hearted implementation of certain flagship schemes, like the 2-bedroom houses remains a challenge for the ruling TRS regime. While the limited beneficiaries of the scheme are certainly overwhelmed, the heartburn among those who failed to draw benefits is much stronger. Jobs, funds and water were the prime demands of the Telangana movement. But, the number of government jobs filled are much less when compared to what was promised by the TRS during the movement. Yet another glaring failure of the government is regarding implementation of its much publicised scheme of three acres for each landless Dalit family, besides providing the remaining extent of land for those who possess less land. The scheme is almost a non-starter with only couple of thousands of acres distributed. However, the TRS expects to tide over the discontentment regarding such issues by focusing on its developmental and welfare schemes like cash support to farmers, drinking water scheme, irrigation projects, financial assistance to girls at the time of marriage, etc.
TRS expects to benefit from its cash transfer scheme of providing Rs 8,000 per acre for the farmers. But, about 30 to 40 percent of farmers are excluded, as this scheme is not applicable to tenant farmers, tribal farmers who are cultivating forest land and are yet to get rights over it due to non-implementation of the Forest Rights Act, etc.
The concentration of power in the hands of the chief minister has made many ministers and MLAs dummy figures, and has also increased the anti-incumbency sentiment. Thus, there is sporadic discontentment against KCR’s rule, but it’s confined to certain sections only. There is no universal displeasure with the TRS.
The TRS, which earlier supported the demand of Andhra people, has recently retreated. Seemandhra voters play a decisive role in many constituencies, especially in state capital Hyderabad. This is evident from the fact that TDP could get as many as 15 seats in 2014, most of them from Hyderabad. The TRS retreat on the special status demand of Andhra Pradesh has a possibility to alienate Seemandhra voters if opposition effectively capitalizes on it. The Lambadi- Adivasi conflict, the unfulfilled demand for SC categorisation, etc are ticklish for any ruling dispensation to handle. The TRS has also not attempted to address these vexed questions fearing political costs. The discontents thus generated among the aggrieved sections is something for the TRS leadership to ponder over.
( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
Prof.K.Nageshwar – CBN indicates alliance with congress , TDP prepares to defend it’s political shift
Chandrababu Naidu has given firm indication that his party may join hands with congress in the ensuing elections. TDP has been a principal rival of congress since its inception both in the state and national politics. But, this changing political landscape in the state is redefining contours of relationship between TDP and congress. The special status narrative helps TDP to defend its major political shift. However, political circles are yet to agree on the electoral implications for TDP due to its proximity with congress, the party that bifurcated the state against the wishes of people of Seemandhra region.
It is true that the TDP was formed by NT Rama Rao to fight the Congress monopoly . But, it is also equally true that the TDP in its course of existence has seen many changes in the political landscape resulting in moderation and revision of its tactics. The United Front government for which N Chandrababu Naidu was the convener survived with the outside support of congress. Therefore , it need not be unusual if TDP firms up its decision to join hands with the Congress. In fact, today, Congress is no longer principal political rival for the ruling TDP.
Alliances mainly depend upon who is fighting whom. The TDP is pitted against the YSR Congress and the Congress is an insignificant player in the state politics today.
The first argument of the critics of TDP-Congress alliance is that the party has bifurcated the state against the wishes of people of Andhra region. The TDP and its supremo have been cursing the Congress for what they call most arbitrary bifurcation of the state. How can TDP join hands with Congress . But, the fact is that every political party except CPI(M) has supported the bifurcation. The united Andhra Pradesh would not have been divided without the active support of BJP. Yet, the TDP had electoral alliance with BJP in 2014. Still the voters did not mind as they were desperately looking for help from Centre and the BJP was poised to come to power in Delhi.
Similarly, the TDP now argues that the Congress is the only other alternate force to come to power at the Centre. The congress has already extended its full support for the demand for special category status. The Congress president Rahul Gandhi has personally favoured the idea.
The TDP leadership hopes that as the special status narrative fast replaces the bifurcation narrative, the voters would not mind its alliance with Congress. The Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh are expected to herald Congress governments . If this happens, there is a possibility of favourable political climate for the Congress. The TDP hopes to exploit this to defend its possible electoral understanding with congress.
Meanwhile the TDP would immediately benefit from alliance with Congress in Telangana even as the political implication of such an understanding on the mandate in Andhra Pradesh is yet not clear. The TDP cannot survive in Telangana without any electoral alliances. The TDP has almost no choice except to tie up with the Congress.
The TDP is running a high decibel anti BJP campaign. As TRS moves closer to BJP, the TDP hopes to defend its alliance with Congress as a bid to isolate and defeat BJP
The anti Modi rhetoric would help TDP to claim that it would do anything and everything possible to halt or resist Modi juggernaut . In such a crusade, claims TDP even Congress is not an untouchable.
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( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
Prof K Nageshwar – YSR Congress falters on political strategy, election eve mistakes may prove to be costlier
YS Jagan Mohan Reddy who is fighting a bitter battle for power in Andhra Pradesh seems to be squandering away the political opportunities by faltering on political and electoral strategies.
Contrary to the earlier declared stand to oppose NDA nominee in the elections for the deputy chairman of Rajyasabha to protest against the centre’s denial of special status to Andhra Pradesh, the YSR Congress abstained from voting indirectly contributing to the victory of the candidate of BJP led combine in this crucial elections.
Earlier, Jagan Mohan Reddy was setting the agenda while the TDP supremo was following . Jaganmohan Reddy steadfastly adhered to the special status demand as Naidu ,part of NDA has disowned the demand and settled for special package. But, Jagan persisted with the demand for special status and rejected the special package. As the special status sentiment continued to rouse, Chandrababu Naidu realising his political folly jumped on to the special status bandwagon.
Jaganmohan Reddy was seeking the exit of ministers from state in the Modi led government to exert pressure on the centre. Chandrababu Naidu remaining in NDA rejected the demand calling it a futile exercise. The argument of the TDP was that it could reap the maximum for the state by continuing in the ministry led by Narendra Modi.
But, as things changed, TDP severed its ties with BJP and the ministers walked out of the NDA government. But, Jagan without relenting sought the exit of TDP from NDA. Naidu, who first rebuked the idea ,ultimately did the same giving YS Jagan Mohan Reddy political advantage.
A similar somersault was seen by the TDP on the No-confidence motion against Modi government. Rejecting the demand for no confidence motion, Chandrababu Naidu said that the Modi government is not vulnerable for such pressure tactics as it enjoyed the enough support in Lok Sabha. However, Naidu said that it would only be a last resort as any such move would not yield any positive result. But, the YSR Congress went ahead with its strategy and moved no confidence motion in Lok Sabha. Perturbed by this development, the chief Minister told the state legislative Assembly that his party would support no confidence motion irrespective of who proposes it.
But, by the next morning realising the political costs of such a move, the TDP altered its stand and rejected the YSR Congress motion. Instead, the TDP moved its own no confidence motion which anyhow did not come to the house during the budget session. Thus, until then from special status to no confidence motion, YSR Congress was leading in dictating the agenda in the state politics. Despite being in power, the TDP was only reacting to the proactive moves of the opposition YSR Congress.
But, later things seems to be changing as Jagan is kicking self goals one after the other.
In a frantic bid to further score over the TDP, Jaganmohan Reddy announced his decision to seek the resignations of his party MP’s in protest against the central government evading no confidence motion during the budget session on some or other pretext. However, the delayed acceptance of the resignations by the Speaker and the failure of the YSR Congress to get its MP’s resignations accepted made elections not possible . This has created political opinion that YSR Congress MPs had a clandestine deal with BJP to avoid the elections as saffron brigade too not ready for by polls.
The TDP successfully harped over it to create an adverse opinion on YSR Congress that it is hobnobbing with the Modi regime. Already there is a perception that YSR Congress is soft towards BJP . Even in its polemics on special status, the Jagan’s party was primarily targeting the TDP without any serious attack on BJP.
Jaganmohan Reddy’s unambiguous support to NDA candidates in Presidential and vice presidential elections further strengthened such a political perception about YSR congress alleged relationship with BJP, the party that blatantly denied special status.
In politics optics certainly matter. More so in a media rich political environment. Thus, the YSR Congress certainly lost such a perception battle.
Added to this Jaganmohan Reddy’s unwarranted comments on the personal life of Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan were politically disastrous. . At a time when the actor turned politician was seriously attacking Chandrababu Naidu , Jagan should have acted intelligently to get a favourable space in the Pawan’s massive fan following. More specifically, Jagan’s unwanted utterances have certainly incurred the wrath of Kapus who constitute a sizable voting in many constituencies.
Within few days of this episode, Jaganmohan Reddy made controversial comments on the demand for Kapu reservations. The YSR Congress leader who earlier wanted Tamil Nadu type formula to accommodate Kapus said that he cannot do anything on the issue as it is in the hands of centre and the Supreme Court verdict does not allow for more than 50 percent reservations. Though, Jagan tried to do the damage control and pacify the Kapus, the strategy has certainly boomeranged. The TDP took an unusual advantage of this to bolster the image of their party among Kapus.
Political observers feel that Jagan did not make that statement on Kapus by mistake. It was a clever strategy to allure OBC voters. But, as his retreat on Kapus did not make any great positive impact on OBCs, Jagan was forced to reiterate his support for kapu quota.
Besides, Jagan’s resignation strategy has also proved to be counterproductive with the Speaker taking up the no confidence motion in the monsoon session. The TDP’s motion was taken up and the party was in the limelight leaving the YSR Congress former MP’s to protests outside the Parliament that failed to make any impact.
Thus, Jagan Mohan Reddy seems to be lacking in sound political and electoral strategy even though he was backed by likes of Prashant Kishor in strategy making.
( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
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కాంగ్రేస్ తో స్నేహానికి చంద్రబాబు సరే || Prof K Nageshwar On TDP Voting For Congress
BJP తో జగన్ మరోసారి దోస్తీ చేసారా? | Prof K Nageshwar On YSR Congress Not Opposing BJP
YS జగన్ ఐదు సెల్ఫ్ గోల్స్||Prof K Nageshwar on 5 self goals of YS Jagan
కాపు రిజర్వేషన్లపై జగన్ చెప్పింది నిజమా?||Jagan on Kapu Reservations||
జగన్ ఆదేశించాడు , చంద్రబాబు పాటిస్తున్నాడు|Jagan sets agenda,Chandrababu follows
Prof Nageshwar – Politics of Treating BJP As Untouchable
The congress in Telangana in a frantic bid to counter KCR gave a new slogan: Vote for TRS is Vote for BJP. This is a clear strategy to woo minority vote in a state where Muslims constitute 12 percent of population and decisive in about 25 to 30 of 119 constituencies. The TRS plans to have a sway over Muslim vote with the promise of 12 percent reservations and tacit understanding with MIM.
But, studies in the behaviour of Muslim vote clearly reveal that there is no such en-block Muslim voting in every state. In communally polarised atmosphere and where BJP is a strong force, Muslims tend to vote strategically for party that can defeat the saffron party. But, in other states and situations, Muslim voter like any other voter exercises one’s voting preferences looking at a host of factors like party, candidate , issues etc.
The Telangana Muslims are concentrated in Hyderabad and few other towns. The politics associated with this community varies from state capital and districts. The MIM determines the behaviour of Muslim vote in Hyderabad while it can go in any way in other towns. Due to the stand of MIM for a united state, the Telangana movement has not seen sizable participation of Muslim electorate. Thus, the TRS failed to penetrate its sentiment into this segment of population strongly as it wishes to do. Thus, the Congress which traditionally rallied Muslims would wish to retain their support. But, the Congress is wary of TRS luring Muslim voters due to its proximity with MIM and promise of quota. Thus, it invented the new slogan of alleged closeness of pink party with the saffron brigade to alienate Muslim vote from TRS .
In a rather similar strategy, the TDP in Andhra Pradesh calls its rivals allies of BJP to turn the tide of discontent over Narendra Modi onto the YSR Congress. The TDP could successfully establish a perception that BJP has done grave injustice to Andhra Pradesh by denying special status and failing to fulfil the assurances in the bifurcation act. Chandrababu Naidu even lists Pawan Kalyan and former CBI joint director Lakshminarayana ,who, recently left service probably to plunge into politics as BJP’s friends.
YSR Congress tactical errors also helped TDP to accomplish its strategy. Jagan’s unequivocal support to BJP during Presidential and Vice presidential elections, alleged parley of YSR Congress leaders with BJP , Jagan’s luke warm criticism of Modi dispensation despite strong negative sentiment among Andhra Pradesh people on BJP etc., further helped TDP to reinforce such apperception that YSR Congress is working at the behest of BJP.
Dalits and minorities are strong vote base of YSR Congress. The TDP by clubbing YSR Congress and BJP would also like to lure away these sections of voters away from Jaganmohan Reddy .
However, in the telugu states where BJP is not a force to reckon with, will such a strategy of congress and TDP to paint BJP as a political untouchable really work?
( Prof.K. Nageshwar is India’s noted political analyst. He is a former member of the Telangana Legislative Council and professor in the Department of Communication & Journalism, Osmania University, Hyderabad, India )
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