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Will caste-based exit polls go wrong in AP?

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It’s an established fact that the voters are broadly divided along caste lines in AP going by previous election results. Now some exit polls have based their predictions on the caste factor in this election. They are ruling out the possibility of massive welfare benefits having any greater impact than caste to benefit the TDP. These pollsters are claiming that the Muslims and some sections of the BCs have voted for the YCP. They are considering the Dalit Christians as the YCP captive vote bank.

On the other hand, the TDP leaders are saying that the AP voters have set aside caste considerations this time as they are more bothered about the future development of their state. Moreover, they claim that there’s an undoubted silent voting for TDP because of old age, widow and handicapped pensions and also DWCRA women benefits.

Pro-YCP analysts say caste-based voting will definitely favour Jaganmohan Reddy while others say caste is just one of the factors but not the predominant factor in this election.

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Exit polls make mixed predictions for Andhra Assembly polls

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While a majority of the exit polls predicted victory for BJP-led NDA at the Centre, they were divided on the likely outcome in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections which were held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls.

The exit polls made mixed projections as to which party will form the next government in the state. While some predicted that the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) will storm to power, others said the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) will retain power.

They painted a hazy picture of Andhra Pradesh Assembly, elections for which were held along with Lok Sabha seats on April 11.

Some exit polls gave the YSRCP 111-135 seats in 175-member Assembly, other predicted that the TDP will win 90-111 seats. They predicted 1-5 seats for actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, which made it electoral debut.

According to India Today-Axis, the YSRCP is expected to win 130-135 seats while the TDP may finish with 37-40 seats. It projected 0-1 seat for the Jana Sena. CPS predicted 130-133 seats for the YSRCP, 37 for the TDP and one for the Jana Sena.

According to VDP Associates, the YSRCP may win 111-121 seats while the TDP may get 54-60. The Jana Sena may finish with 0-4.

However, an exit poll by INSS predicted that the TDP will retain power by winning 118 seats while the YSRCP may get 52. It gave 5 seats to Pawan Kalyan’s party. Elite gave 101-111 seats to the TDP and 63-73 to the YSRCP. Former MP L. Rajagopal’s RG Flash Team projected 90-100 seats for the TDP and 65-79 for the YSRCP.

All the exit polls predicted that both Congress and BJP will draw a blank.

In 2014 elections, the TDP had bagged 102 seats while its then ally BJP had won four seats. The YSRCP had won 67 seats while two independents were also elected. In the Lok Sabha elections held simultaneously, the TDP had won 15 and the BJP two seats. The YSRCP bagged the remaining eight seats.

This time, exit polls have also made mixed projections for Lok Sabha polls. They gave the YSRCP 12-15 Lok Sabha seats and the TDP 10-13.

The IANS-CVOTER exit poll predicted 14 seats for the TDP while giving 11 to the YSRCP.

Chief Minister and TDP President N. Chandrababu Naidu on Monday said he was “cent per cent” sure of the TDP retaining power.

The TDP supremo believes that the welfare and development programmes undertaken by his government during last five years would help it get a fresh mandate.

Naidu predicted that the TDP will win 110 seats in 175-member Assembly. “Our seats may even go up to 120-130,” he told his party leaders.

He was also confident that of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the TDP will bag 18-20.

YSRCP leader Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy said the exit polls broadly indicated the situation in the state. “They have confirmed what we have been saying for last several months,” he said.

Ramakrishna Reddy, who is political secretary to YSRCP chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, was confident that the party would get more seats than projected in the exit polls.

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Roja’s public pulse poll raises curiosity

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The exit polls by national media and private teams created lot of sensation. Now YCP leader Roja came out with her own argument. She says she has done a public pulse survey which is more dependable than any other. As per this, the YCP will win 126 to 130 MLA seats. Jaganmohan Reddy is sure to become CM. The party will also win 22 to 23 MP seats.

Roja is giving her own logic for her survey. Jaganmohan Reddy’s padayatra across the state has helped strike a strong bond with the people. His ideas and Navaratnalu promises have created positive impact on the people. Roja asserted that there’s a pro-Jagan wave in the state. Analysts say Roja’s pulse predictions are no different from some national media exit polls which gave thunderous victory for YCP.

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Exit polls confirmed our prediction, says YSRCP

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The YSR Congress Party on Sunday said the exit polls which predicted its victory in Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections had only confirmed what it had been claiming for last several months.

However, the party did not agree with the exit polls for Lok Sabha election. The poll gave gave it 13-15 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state but the party said it was confident of winning 23 seats.

YSRCP leader Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy said the exit polls broadly indicated the situation in the state. “They have confirmed what we have been saying for last several months,” he said.

Ramakrishna Reddy, who is political secretary to YSRCP chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, was confident that the party would get more seats than projected in the exit polls.

Three out of five exit polls predicted that the YSRCP will sweep the Assembly polls by winning 110-135 seats in the 175-member Assembly.

He said Telugu Desam Party (TDP) President N. Chandrababu Naidu had admitted his defeat immediately after the polls by raising his doubts about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs).

On the exit poll of former MP L. Rajagopal predicting victory for the TDP, Ramakrishna Reddy said he had no credibility. He said Rajagopal had lost his credibility when his exit poll showed that Congress-led alliance will win Telangana Assembly elections in December last year but the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) emerged victorious with landslide victory.

According to Rajagopal’s exit polls, the TDP will win 90-110 seats while the YSRCP will bag 65-69 seats.

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TDP demands re-poll in 19 polling centres

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With the Election Commission ordering re-poll in five polling booth following a demand of the YSR Congress Party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) too has demanded re-polling in 19 polling booths in seven constituencies across Andhra Pradesh.

A delegation of the TDP leaders submitted a memorandum to Chief Secretary L.V. Subramanyam in this regard.

The delegation including Ministers Devineni Uma, Kollu Ravindra and Nakka Anand Babu urged the Chief Secretary to recommend the re-poll to the EC.

The TDP made the request two days after the EC ordered re-poll in five booths in Chandragiri Assembly constituency following a complaint by a YSRCP candidate that voters of a particular community were prevented from casting their votes during the polling held on April 11.

The ruling party took strong objection to the EC decision to conduct the re-poll after more than a month and alleged that the poll panel was ignoring its demands for re-poll but was accepting the demand of YSRCP.

The TDP leaders claimed that irregularities occurred during the polling in 19 polling booths on April 11.

Re-polling in five booths in Chandragiri is scheduled on May 19. Earlier, re-polling in five other booths spread over three districts was held on May 6.

Elections to the 175-member Assembly and 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state were held on April 11.

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Vijayasai alerts YCP counting agents on TDP game plan

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The YSR Congress Party is preparing its cadres and leaders for the May 23 counting day. YCP MP Vijayasai Reddy has asked the party agents to be under control and maintain maximum vigil on the counting process. He told the party counting agents not to get diverted and lose concentration when the TDP agents make complaints against the counting process. The ruling party agents are expected to raise questions at every level which should be tackled carefully.

Retired IAS officers Ajay Kallam Reddy, Samuel and others also gave training programmes to YCP agents. The YCP leaders were particular about their party agents not to get provoked by TDP game plans. Vijayasai reminded that this election result is very crucial for their party as it is going to be the outcome of 10 years of hard efforts.

Both the ruling TDP and the opposition YCP are making hectic arrangements for the counting day. The YCP leaders are highly confident of their victory but still they are asking their agents to remain focused till the entire counting process is completed. They are asked not to pick up arguments or fights with TDP or counting officials as the entire process is being monitored with CCTVs.

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TRS, YSRCP to wait for clear picture to emerge

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Both the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) may skip May 23 meeting convened by UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and will wait for a clear picture to emerge after the Lok Sabha battle before responding to her invitation.

Though both the parties have officially denied receiving invitations for the May 23 meeting, they appear to be adopting a wait and watch approach before deciding their next strategy.

Some YSRCP leaders wondered how parties could attend a meeting on May 23 when the counting process would still be underway and a clear picture could emerge only late at night or the next day.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Chairperson Sonia Gandhi has invited political heavyweights for the meeting.

TRS President and Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao, who is trying to bring regional parties together under his proposed Federal Front, is likely to take a decision about talks only after all the results were declared.

As KCR is counting on the support of YSRCP and other parties to push for a non-BJP and non-Congress government, he may wait for the final tally before beginning talks with different players, informed sources said.

Both TRS and YSRCP are likely to emerge kingmakers in the event of the Lok Sabha elections throwing a fractured verdict.

In Telangana, which has 17 Lok Sabha seats, TRS is confident of making a clean sweep along with its ally All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), with the latter expected to retain its Hyderabad seat.

In Andhra Pradesh, YSRCP is tipped to win 20-22 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats. UPA’s reported invitations to both the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and YSRCP have sparked a debate.

The TDP has already declared its support to Congress and its President N. Chandrababu Naidu is even ready to play the anchor for a non-BJP alliance led by the Congress. It was not clear how Naidu would react to the invitation to YSRCP.

A YSRCP leader termed the May 23 meeting too early.

“As 5 per cent VVPAT slips have to be counted, a clear picture will emerge only in the afternoon of May 24,” K. Ravichandra Reddy said during a debate on a Telugu channel.

On whether YSRCP will extend support to Congress-led alliance, the party leaders said their stand was clear.

“Our party leader Jagan Mohan Reddy has already made it clear that whichever party comes forward to give special category status to Andhra Pradesh will get our support,” another YSRCP leader said.

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Video: YSRCP and TRS among India’s Most Educated Political Parties

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Twin challenges to ‘Nellore political bigwigs

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The 2019 AP election has become very crucial for the future existence of many long-standing political families in Nellore district. There are two major challenges for them as of now. The first one is to win their own respective seats in the face of strong opposition from rival candidates who are getting support from most caste vote banks. Interestingly, all the major Reddy political families are now in YCP and their community is totally supporting YCP. This is one reason why other castes have voted significantly for the TDP candidates. As a result, Anam Ramanarayana Reddy, Mekapati Gowtham Reddy, Adala Prabhakar Reddy, Nallapureddy Prasanna Kumar Reddy, Mekapati Chandrasekhar Reddy, Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy, etc are all facing struggle to win their seats.

The second challenge is that even if these biggies win the polls, it will be of no use if Jaganmohan Reddy fails again to come to power. Right now, these big families are anxiously awaiting the May 23 results. They are getting daily feedback on how different castes voted. These feedbacks are giving big tensions for them.

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YCP leaders considering Donakonda as future capital of AP?

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The land rates have gone up suddenly in the past three weeks in Donakonda area in Prakasam district. Real estate activity has picked up substantially as the YCP leaders are busy making enquiries to buy parcels of land there. It has triggered speculation that Jaganmohan Reddy is most likely to declare Donakonda as the future capital city of AP. Many YCP leaders want to get the early bird advantage by buying lands at the currently available lower rates.

As is well known, Donakonda was internally declared as AP capital within YCP prior to the 2014 assembly election. Many YCP leaders especially those from Kadapa and other Rayalaseema districts have bought large tracts of land there. Their hopes were smashed as Jagan lost the election while the TDP selected Amaravati as the capital city. Later, the YCP leaders tried to sell those lands but there were no buyers offering right prices. Now their hopes are on Jagan’s victory this time which means Donakonda getting back its missed chance and glory.

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Jagan , YSRCP leaders floating in dreams !

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Almost all the YCP leaders are busy making plans for their key roles and powerful positions. They firmly believe in their party running government from May 23. Jaganmohan Reddy is no exception to this and he is literally floating in CM dreams. Insiders revealed that Jaganmohan Reddy is making plans to conduct his first YCP Legislature Party meeting at Idupulapaya nearer to his father’s samadhi.

There is also talk that Jagan is not showing interest in conducting his swearing-in function in Amaravati capital city. There’s no clue as yet on this but Jagan is considering various other options for the same. His party leaders are also speculating on who will be given which ministry. Many MLA hopefuls are already making representations to Vijayasai Reddy and YV Subba Reddy. There’s talk that either Roja or Kodali Nani will be made the home minister. The party leaders are also discussing that Jaganmohan Reddy will pursue cases against Chandrababu Naidu to target him and cripple his party once YCP comes to power.

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YCP top leader betted Rs 5 crore on TDP victory?

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Rumours are spreading like wild fire in Nellore on a top YCP leader’s shocking bet. They say that the YCP leader betted Rs 5 crore on the TDP victory. The leader held his personal survey after the poll in which the TDP emerged with better winning chances. The reason for this is CM Naidu’s sincere appeal to voters which made women turn up in large numbers to vote on the polling day.

Interestingly, the same YCP leader got a survey done a few weeks prior to the April 11 polling. At that time, the result was against the TDP based on which the top leader quit the TDP and joined YCP. Now, he has commented in front of his followers that he had made a mistake by changing party loyalties. His followers talked about this with others which triggered rumours in Nellore Town. People are also talking about how this leader is well-known for accurate predictions in times of elections and how he bets big in every poll.

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YCP Ex Councillor complains to EC against own party MLA candidate

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The YCP leaders are facing unexpected problems in Pedana assembly segment in Krishna district. Their own party ex councillor in 12th ward made a complaint to the Election Commission of India to cancel and conduct re-election in the segment in view of malpractices committed by their party candidate Jogi Ramesh. He charged that Ramesh’s followers from Ibrahimpatnam distributed Rs 10 lakh in the 12th ward two days prior to the April 11 polling.

YCP Ex Councillor Dodipattla Nageswara Rao has made the complaint after other party leaders began demanding return of Rs. 4 lakh from him. Nageswara Rao is asserting that he was not involved in money distribution to voters. The other leaders are blackmailing me to give the money, he said. Nageswara Rao’s allegations created sensation in the political circles. Rumours spread that the dispute is an outcome of the internal clashes between the YCP leaders over money distribution. It’s not unusual for main political parties to face the problem of second rung leaders pocketing most of the money that is meant for distribution to voters.

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YCP leaders putting high hopes on twin Godavari districts

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In 2004 and 2009, YS Rajasekhar Reddy came to power with good support from the twin Godavari districts. YSR used to promote a section of leaders each in the Kapu and SC communities. Those leaders coupled with the Congress party’s traditional voters helped YSR to a large extent. Is there any scope for creating such an atmosphere? Now YCP leaders are expecting similar support from the SC and BC communities in Godavari districts in the present election. They are on virtual propaganda in the rest of the state that the voters unilaterally voted for the YCP in these districts.

Interestingly, even the Jana Sena party leaders are expecting massive support in the two districts. The Kapus were stated to have voted for Pawan’s party but it’s not sure whether their support was 100 per cent. The TDP is confident that it has got a good share of vote banks in almost all sections thanks to its welfare programmes like Pasupu Kumkuma.

In 2014, Jaganmohan Reddy blindly believed that the Godavari voters would extend the same support as in the case of his father YSR. Now the question is whether Jagan had got strong enough leaders to get him winning numbers in Godavari districts.

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YCP is up to do something wrong, says Chandrababu

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All eyes are now on the electronic voting machines stored in the strong rooms. Recently, the YCP leaders started making allegations that the rival party may tamper with the EVMs. They have asked the Election Commission to take all the precautionary measures. Now AP CM Chandrababu Naidu is referring to these complaints of YCP to express doubts whether the opposition party is preparing to do something seriously wrong with the EVMs. He says that the YCP has a bad track record in the recent past. It tried to get lakhs of TDP votes deleted from the voters’lists by making false Form 7 requests to the EC.

Naidu said that it’s a unique modus operandi of the YCP to level allegations against the TDP before it’s going to commit those malpractices to achieve its goals. Given the present statements of the YSC leaders, there’s no doubt that they are up to do something to subvert the counting process. Naidu expressed doubts whether the YCP leaders are planning to create disturbances across the state on the counting day. Already, some YCP leaders are alleging that the TDP is trying to resort to violence on counting day. This is an indication of the YCP future plans, said AP CM. He stressed the need for AP police to remain on high alert until the completion of the counting process.

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Why are pro-Jagan bettors so confident?

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There is one big challenge in front of TDP sympathisers these days. It is from the pro-YCP betting gangs which are challenging them for bets in a variety of ways. They are offering 150 per cent on each bet. There are also crazy bets like offering 100 per cent if TDP gets one seat more than YCP. These betting gangs have stepped up their activities across the state in the last few days.

The confidence of these bettors has to some extent shaken the upbeat mood among TDP favourites who are now thinking two times before taking any decision. They are also speculating widely on the possible reasons for this high level confidence among the pro-Jaganmohan Reddy bettors.

The foremost immediate reason is found to be the advantage taken by YCP MLA candidates because of Jagan’s secret deal with BJP and Election Commission. They were able to freely and unhesitatingly transport huge amounts of cash which they successfully distributed among the voters aplenty. The TDP candidates could not do this so effectively in the crucial two days prior to the election. Another reason is the Prashant Kishore factor. YCP sympathisers are hoping that some outside forces helped Jagan on polling day. The same forces would help in tampering the EVMs if required in order to make Jagan next CM.

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Will YS Jagan revive party in Telangana if voted to power in AP?

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With election results day, scheduled on May 23, nearing, speculation is rive over the possibility of revival of YSRCP in Telangana in case YS Jaganmohan Reddy becomes the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh.

YSRCP seems to be on cloud nine as it hopes to form the government in AP. Banking on the positive surveys and feedback, YSRCP has already begun brainstorming sessions on the future course of actions including exploring the possibility of reviving the party in Telangana. Senior leaders from Telangana are reportedly approaching the YSRCP high command. Senior leaders, those who are out of TRS and Congress, are planning to revive YSRCP in Telangana and trying to convince YS Jaganmohan Reddy stating it’ll be a win-win situation.

For instance, former TDP leader Motkupally Narsimlu has met YS Jaganmohan Reddy and suggested him to revive the party‌ in Telangana.

YSRCP in 2014 elections won three MLA and one MP seats. Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy won on YSRCP ticket from Khammam Lok Sabha constituency. Banoth Madan Lal in Wyra constituency, Payam Venkateshwarlu in Pinapaka constituency and Thati Venkateshwarlu in Ashwaraopet constituency won as YSRCP MLAs in 2014 elections. However, later all of them joined TRS party. But, in 2018 December elections, Payam Venkateshwarlu and Banoth Madan Lal lost, while Thati Venkateshwarlu didn’t get a ticket. Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy too couldn’t get ticket in the just-concluded Lok Sabha polls.

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Vijayasai Reddy is a fraudulent auditor, says Kutumba Rao

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Not a day passes without YCP MP Vijayasai Reddy getting involved in heated exchanges with the TDP leaders. This time, it’s AP Planning Board Vice Chairman C Kutumba Rao who passed angry counter remarks. Vijayasai has no moral right to criticize and call me a stock broker. In fact, Vijayasai himself is a corrupt and fraudulent auditor. Is it not? asked Kutumba Rao.

The exchanges between the two leaders were triggered after Vijayasai passed several comments on the alleged heavy debts in Andhra Pradesh. He has also talked about the lack of discipline on the part of the TDP government to take care of the finances of the state. Kutumba Rao asserted that their government had done all the right things to extend maximum benefits under the welfare schemes for the poor families. Is it bothering the YCP leaders? Vijayasai Reddy should clearly explain whether the TDP made wasteful expenditure on the welfare schemes. The AP people are not ready to blindly believe YCP leaders and they had already given their verdict accordingly, said Kutumba Rao.

Telugu360 is always open for the best and bright journalists. If you are interested in full-time or freelance, email us at Krishna@telugu360.com.

YCP emerges favourite for AP poll bettings

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After April 11 polling, there were claims and counter claims about victory chances of the Telugu Desam Party and the YSR Congress Party. A few days later, bettings picked up speed with the bettors putting greater confidence in the TDP win. There was hesitation on the part of YCP sympathisers to put high bets on Jaganmohan Reddy becoming the chief minister.

But now the scene has changed dramatically that the YCP has emerged as the favourite for the bettors and punters. The pro-Jagan betting gangs have grown highly confident. Analysts say that this is because of the general atmosphere prevailing now after the Election Commission of India reduced the powers of Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu in different ways.

Seeing the greater confidence levels of YCP leaders, the pro-TDP punters are now thinking twice before taking any risk. Speculation is also rising once again on the likely winning chances of the two main parties.

Telugu360 is always open for the best and bright journalists. If you are interested in full-time or freelance, email us at Krishna@telugu360.com.

Buddha Venkanna’s counter on YCP betting

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Political circles are full of rumours that many gangs are going around challenging others for betting on winning chances of YCP and TDP. These gangs are carrying loads and loads of money with them. They are placing bets on the certain victory of YCP and that Jaganmohan Reddy will become the chief minister. In a strong counter to this, TDP MLC Buddha Venkanna said that Jagan is bringing out most of his ill-gotten money hidden in his Idupulayapaya estate bunkers.

Venkanna further expressed happiness that Jagan’s ill-gotten money was in fact belonging to the public and now this money was flowing back to the people in different ways – first in the forms of cash gratification to voters and now in the name of betting. The TDP MLC accused Jaganmohan Reddy of spending over Rs. 8,000 crore money from out of his huge reserves he amassed during his father YSR’s rule.

Venkanna asserted that Jagan’s tactics of using money and muscle power did not work in this election. The voters had given their support to CM Chandrababu Naidu who is ruling the state like Lord Sriramachandra of Indian mythology. Venkanna said that Jagan’s evil strategies would miserably fail in front of Naidu’s fight for justice and dharma.

Telugu360 is always open for the best and bright journalists. If you are interested in full-time or freelance, email us at Krishna@telugu360.com.

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