With former minister Eatala Rajender resigning from the Telangana Legislative Assembly, the state is set to witness another by-election in which the ruling TRS and the opposition BJP will once again face each other.

Rajender, who will be joining the Bharatiya Janata Party next week, has given the saffron camp another chance to project itself as the real alternative to the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in the run-up to the 2023 Assembly polls.

The Huzurabad constituency, which Rajender had been representing since 2009, is expected to see a tough fight. The BJP will be upbeat about its chances as Rajender has never lost an election from the seat, where he enjoys a good support base.

The TRS, on the other hand, will go all out to retain the seat in the politically significant Karimnagar district. This constituency has been the party’s stronghold since 2004.

In 2004, V. Lakshmikantha Rao was elected from Huzurabad on a TRS ticket. He retained the seat in the by-election in 2008.

Rajender, who was first elected from the Kamalapur constituency in 2004 and retained it in the bypoll, was shifted to Huzurabad in 2009. Since then he had been winning the seat for TRS.

One of the founding members of TRS, Rajender maintained his grip on the constituency. In 2009, he defeated his nearest rival V. Krishna Mohan Rao of the Congress by 15,035 votes. In the 2010 bypoll, Rajender increased his victory margin to nearly 80,000 and this time his nearest rival was M. Damodar Reddy of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

In the 2014 elections held just before the formation of Telangana state, Rajender retained Huzurabad with a majority of 57,037 votes. K. Sudershan Reddy of the Congress finished as a runner-up.

Rajender continued his winning streak from Huzurabad in 2018, defeating his nearest rival Kaushik Reddy of the Congress by 47,803 votes.

The BJP hardly had any presence in Huzurabad in the elections held in the past. In 2018, its candidate P. Raghu polled only 1,683 votes, which was less than NOTA votes (2,867).

However, with Rajender joining its ranks, BJP leaders are confident of wresting the seat from the TRS.

They believe that the saffron party will repeat its Dubbak performance in Huzurabad. In the by-election to the Dubbak Assembly constituency held in November last year, the BJP had pulled off a sensational victory to stun the TRS.

“Even in Dubbak, we hardly had any presence but we put in a lot of hard work to emerge victorious. We are confident that we will repeat the performance in Huzurabad,” a BJP leader said.

It was following the Dubbak victory that the BJP started projecting itself as the only alternative to TRS. The party’s central leadership too started focusing on Telangana.

A month later, the saffron party came out with an impressive performance in the elections to the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC). In the 150-member municipal body, the BJP increased its tally to 48 from just four seats in 2016.

It not only emerged as the main opposition in GHMC, but also deprived the TRS of a clear majority.

Following these victories, the BJP has intensified its efforts towards the goal of capturing power in the 2023 Assembly elections. However, the outcome of the elections to two graduate constituencies of the Legislative Council in March and the recent by-election in Nagarjuna Sagar came as a disappointment for the party.

The BJP could not retain a Legislative Council seat and finished a poor fourth in the other. In Nagarjuna Sagar, where the main contest was between the TRS and the Congress, BJP candidate Ravi Kumar Naik polled only 4 per cent votes and had to forfeit his deposit.

Just as the BJP was looking for some course correction to strengthen the organisation ahead of the 2023 polls, the Rajender episode gave it another opportunity to prove a point.

When Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao dropped Rajender from the cabinet last month following allegations of encroaching the lands of farmers, the buzz in the political circles was that he will quit the TRS to float a new party or join hands with the leaders of smaller parties.

However, the 57-year-old leader, who served as Finance Minister in the previous TRS cabinet and held the health portfolio till recently, decided to join the saffron camp. He visited New Delhi to meet BJP President J.P. Nadda and other leaders before taking a decision to join the saffron camp.

Rajender ended his nearly two-decade old association with the TRS and mounted a scathing attack on Chandrasekhar Rao.

Several followers of the former minister will also be joining the BJP with him. Political analysts say this will lift the morale of the saffron camp.

However, fresh from its victories in the Legislative Council elections, Nagarjuna Sagar bypoll and clean sweep in the elections to eight urban local bodies, the TRS is likely to go all out to defeat Rajender on his home turf and thus deal a blow to the BJP’s renewed attempts to emerge as the viable alternative in the southern state.

The exit of former minister Etela Rajender from the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) marked the end of a cold war between him and Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao and sparked a debate on the impact the former would have on the ruling party with his joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A month after being dropped from the state Cabinet following allegations of land encroachment, Rajender on Friday announced his decision to quit the party and also resign as a member of the Legislative Assembly.

Though Rajender’s announcement to end his nearly two-decade-long association with the TRS and decision to join the saffron camp may not have any immediate impact on the ruling party, the development may encourage others unhappy with the leadership of Chandrasekhar Rao aka KCR to raise their voice.

The development came at a time when Telangana entered the eighth year of its formation under KCR, whose leadership so far remains unchallenged.

“Exit of Eatala Rajender reiterated the fact that TRS is synonymous to KCR, and he is the sole proprietor of the party. The claims of multiple owners to the pink brigade can be put to rest. This development will re-establish supremacy of KCR, and this is an answer to all future dissidents in the party,” said political analyst Palwai Raghavendra Reddy.

While KCR and his party will defend the action against Rajender by citing his alleged acts of omission and commission, the bitter allegations by the former minister are likely to embarrass the TRS leadership and provide ammunition to the otherwise weakened opposition.

KCR, who revived the Telangana movement in 2001 by floating the TRS, continues to have a vice-like grip over both the party and the government.

In fact, the action against Rajender, who has been his confidante since the formation of the party, is believed to be a well calculated move to nip in the bud any possible rebellion or challenge to his authority.

While there had been reports of a fissure between KCR and Rajender for more than three years, the TRS chief took everyone by surprise by ordering a probe against him after a group of farmers from Medak district complained that Rajender grabbed their lands for a poultry unit owned by his family.

The action came when the state was in the grip of a Covid surge and Rajender as the health minister was busy holding meetings with officials to review the pandemic situation. The chief minister himself was recovering from Covid at his farmhouse.

As the officials went on record that 66 acres of land was encroached, KCR stripped Rajender of his health portfolio on May 1 and the next day dropped him from the cabinet.

Rajender, a member of the Assembly from Huzurabad constituency in Karimnagar district, hit back at KCR and alleged that there is a conspiracy to defame him.

The former minister faced another probe as KCR formed a committee comprising four IAS officers to investigate encroachments and illegal transactions of Sri Sita Rama Swamy temple land at Devarayamjal village in Shamirpet near Hyderabad. Rajender and his supporters had allegedly encroached 1,521 acres in the village.

Eatala, one of the founding members of the TRS and a six-time MLA, had entered KCR’s bad books a couple of years ago when he took potshots at him on a few occasions.

“The minister’s post is not anybody’s pittance. We are the owners of TRS who have carried the party flag,” Rajender had said at one party meeting.

On another occasion, he remarked that he reached his position not because of his caste but by his sheer hard work.

“I am not here because I am somebody’s son,” Eatala had remarked in what was believed to be an attack on KCR’s son and minister K.T. Rama Rao.

Rajender said he quit the TRS because he did not want to continue as a slave. Alleging there is no freedom for ministers and MLAs to function, he said they are treated like slaves.

“In the past I resigned several times from the Assembly for the sake of self-respect of Telangana. I am resigning again but this time for my self-respect as I can’t continue as a slave,” he said.

Interestingly, Rajender also claimed that Finance Minister T. Harish Rao too faced humiliation.

Harish Rao is KCR’s nephew and there have been reports of a chasm between the two ever since the TRS started projecting his son Rama Rao as his political successor.

“The TRS was born from the movement and is not run like a family party like Lalu Prasad’s or Mayawati’s parties. Telangana state was achieved with sacrifices of thousands of people and not with a handful of people,” Rajender said while targeting KCR for promoting his son and daughter.

Political analysts say by raising the issue of self-respect and KCR promoting his family, Rajender may be encouraging other TRS leaders unhappy with the leadership to speak out.

The counterattack by TRS on Rajender has been on expected lines.

“He is talking of self-respect after being dropped from the cabinet following allegations of land encroachment. How can he acquire assigned land of the poor which is illegal. He has more respect for his properties than the law of the land,” said TRS legislator P. Rajeshwar Reddy.

Now that Rajender has decided to quit his Assembly seat and sail with the BJP, all eyes will be on Rajender’s stronghold Huzurabad.

“By joining BJP, Eatala indicated that he needs a safe haven and support of the party in power in New Delhi. He did not show the might to start a party of his own or fight as an Independent to win the seat he currently represents,” said political analyst Raghavendra Reddy.

The by-election in Huzurabad will be the fourth in the state in three years and will provide the BJP another chance to prove itself as an alternative to the TRS.

After wresting the Dubbak Assembly seat from the TRS and posting an impressive performance in the elections to Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) late last year, the BJP suffered humiliation in recent elections to two graduates’ constituencies of the Legislative Council and by-election to Nagarjuna Sagar Assembly seat.

Analysts say the BJP may gain in the narrative by projecting itself as the real alternative to the TRS. With Eatala joining its ranks, the BJP will be hoping to garner more votes.

The TRS, which appears to have bounced back after the shock defeat in Dubbak, is likely to go the whole hog in Huzurabad to check both the BJP and Rajender.